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SafetyScorer

Harbin Aircraft Industry Group (AVIC) · Turboprop

Harbin Y-12

Is the Harbin Y-12 safe? It ranks Shared rankWithin 1 point of other aircraft types: the difference is not meaningful.More in the glossary of 53 airliner families we rate, with 5 fatal accidents counted in about 740,000 passenger flights.

Low confidenceIn serviceUpdated 10 October 2026
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1 in 310,000chance of dying on a flight3.18 deaths per million passenger boardings

How the score is built

Fatal passenger accidents
5 in 0.74 million flights

6.8 fatal passenger accidents per million flights. Counted: passenger flights, accidents and unexplained losses; not counted: sabotage, hijackings, shoot-downs and deliberate crew acts.

Full-loss equivalents
3.2

Each counted accident adds the share of people on board who died (1 = no survivors). This is what the score is based on.

Flights flown
0.74 million

Estimated passenger departures. Passenger departures 1985 to 7 October 2026 from a fleet model: deliveries with a median passenger service life of about 11 years and about 998 departures per aircraft per year (average of similar types in OpenSky). OpenSky sees too few of these aircraft. Uncertainty roughly ±50%.

Technology generation
Classic turboprop (designed before about 1980)

Small fleets are pulled toward the record of their generation: 2.9 full-loss equivalents per million flights over 127 million flights. Weight of this family's own record: 20%.

Last fatal passenger accident
19 October 2000

Lao Aviation, 12 km from Sam Neua, Laos: 8 of 17 people on board died.

Hull losses
16

Civil aircraft destroyed or written off from all causes, including non-fatal accidents, cargo flights and attacks; airframes flown by air forces on military operations are left out (context only, not in the score).

Compared with everyday risks

One flight on the Harbin Y-12 carries about the same risk of death as the activities near it below.

  • An hour's walk1 in 14 million
  • Driving 100 miles (160 km)1 in 5.9 million
  • A day of skiing1 in 1.3 million
  • An ordinary day: accidents and violence1 in 1 million
  • A scuba dive1 in 500,000
  • Cycling 100 miles (160 km)1 in 430,000
  • One flight on the Harbin Y-12This aircraft1 in 310,000
  • Running a marathon1 in 290,000
  • A skydive1 in 250,000
  • A general anaesthetic1 in 100,000
  • Riding a motorbike 100 miles (160 km)1 in 83,000
Chance of dying from each activity, on a log scale (longer bar = riskier). Activity figures are approximate and come from our activity pages; the ordinary day and the anaesthetic come from The Norm Chronicles (Blastland and Spiegelhalter, 2013).

Accident history

5 fatal accidents count toward the score, with 63 people on board killed.

DateFlightKilledWhat happened
Lao AviationY-12-II · 12 km from Sam Neua, Laos8 / 17 on boardLao Aviation flight 703 from Vientiane lost contact ten minutes after reporting its position to Sam Neua and crashed in mountains in bad weather; 8 of the 17 on board died.Type: Flight into terrainASN record
MIAT - Mongolian AirlinesY-12-II · W of Erdenet, Mongolia28 / 28 on boardAbout 13 minutes after leaving Erdenet for Moron, the MIAT Y-12 hit a mountain near its summit; all 28 on board died. It carried 26 passengers, 12 of them children, in an aircraft built for about 19.Type: Flight into terrainASN record
MIAT - Mongolian AirlinesY-12-II · Mandalgobi Airport (MXW), Mongolia7 / 12 on boardThe MIAT Y-12 was caught by windshear about 30 m above the ground on approach to Mandalgobi, which had no wind measuring equipment. It crashed and 7 of the 12 on board died.Type: Windshear or stormASN record
China Flying Dragon AviationY-12-IV · near Changhai Airport (CNI), China2 / 12 on boardApproaching the island airport of Changhai in fog, the crew turned onto final too early, drifted 3 km off track and descended below the minimum altitude despite terrain warnings. The Y-12 hit a 100 m hill; both pilots died and the ten passengers survived.Type: Flight into terrainASN record
Lao AviationY-12-II · Phonesavanh, Laos18 / 18 on boardThe Lao Aviation Y-12 crashed while approaching Phonsavan; all 18 on board died. No cause is recorded.Type: Unknown causeASN record

Listed but not counted

These events did not happen on regular passenger flights or were caused by a crime or a deliberate act, which says little about the aircraft design.

DateFlightKilledWhy not counted
Kenya Air Force - KAFY-12-II · ca 10 km N of Voi, Kenya4 / 4 on boardMilitary operation. The Kenya Air Force Y-12 crashed into Irima hill in Tsavo East National Park near Voi on a flight from Nairobi to Mombasa; all four on board died. The circumstances are not recorded.Type: Unknown causeASN record
Sri Lanka Air ForceY-12-II · Haputale, Badulla, Sri Lanka4 / 4 on boardMilitary operation. The Sri Lanka Air Force Y-12 flew into mountainous terrain near Haputale during a surveillance flight; all four on board died and one person on the ground was hurt.Type: Flight into terrainASN record
Kenya Air Force - KAFY-12-II · El Wak Airfield (HKEW), Kenya1 / 12 on boardMilitary operation. The Kenya Air Force Y-12 crashed on take-off from El Wak on a flight from Mandera to Nairobi; one pilot died and the other eleven on board were injured. No cause is recorded.Type: Unknown causeASN record
Force Aérienne de la République Islamique de MauritanieY-12-II · near Nouakchott Airport (NKC), Mauritania7 / 7 on boardMilitary operation. The Mauritanian Air Force Y-12, flying for a gold mining company to collect gold from the Tasiast mine, crashed shortly after take-off from Nouakchott; all seven on board died. No cause is recorded.Type: Unknown causeASN record
China Flying Dragon AviationY-12-II · near Bairin Left Banner, Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, China3 / 4 on boardNot a scheduled passenger flight. The China Flying Dragon Y-12 crashed en route near Bairin Left Banner, Inner Mongolia, during a survey flight; three of the four on board died. No cause is recorded.Type: Unknown causeASN record
Kenya Air Force - KAFY-12-II · near Marsabit, Kenya14 / 17 on boardMilitary operation. The Kenya Air Force Y-12, carrying MPs and a bishop to peace talks in the Marsabit area, flew into the cloud-covered foothills of Mount Marsabit on approach; 14 of the 17 on board died.Type: Flight into terrainASN record
Zambian Air ForceY-12-II · near Mongu Airport (MNR), Zambia13 / 13 on boardMilitary operation. The Zambian Air Force Y-12 crashed shortly after take-off from Mongu on a food distribution mission to a drought-hit area; all 13 on board died. No cause is recorded.Type: Unknown causeASN record
Sri Lanka Air ForceY-12-II · off Jaffna-Palaly Airport (JAF/VCCJ), Sri Lanka4 / 4 on boardMilitary operation. The Sri Lanka Air Force Y-12 crashed into the sea off the north coast while checking a suspected Tamil Tiger vessel; all four on board died. No cause is recorded.Type: Unknown causeASN record
Transportes Aéreos Nacionales de la Selva - TANSY-12-II · near Iquitos Airport (IQT), Peru3 / 3 on boardNot a scheduled passenger flight. The Y-12 of TANS, the Peruvian air force's civil airline, crashed shortly after take-off from Iquitos; the three on board died. No cause is recorded.Type: Unknown causeASN record
China Flying Dragon AviationY-12-I · Shishou County-Level City, Jingzhou, Hubei Province, China5 / 5 on boardNot a scheduled passenger flight. The magnetometer-equipped Y-12 was flying a geophysical survey below 100 m when its right engine flamed out. It crashed into farmland, killing the five on board and a farmer. Foreign rubber found in the engine's fuel system was the likely cause.Type: Engine failureASN record

The Y-12 is a tough, simple commuter aircraft whose airline record is short and concentrated in the 1990s. Up to 7 October 2026 our data holds five fatal passenger accidents that count, all between 1993 and 2000, in about 740,000 estimated passenger flights. That estimate could be off by half either way, so the type's rate is uncertain and leans on the record of other classic turboprops.

What the Y-12 is

Harbin Aircraft built the Y-12 from its earlier Y-11 utility aircraft. It first flew on 14 July 1982 and production began in 1985. It is a high-wing, unpressurised twin with Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A turboprops and fixed landing gear, made for short and rough strips, and seats 17 to 19 passengers. The FAA certified the Y-12 (IV) in March 1995. The Y-12E followed in 2006 and the wider, heavier Y-12F in 2016.

Around 300 had been delivered by 2023. Most went to air forces, governments and Chinese survey, crop-spraying and skydiving operators, not to airlines. Airline Y-12s flew in Mongolia, Laos, Nepal, Malaysia, Colombia and Peru, and small carriers in the Pacific islands and Africa have used them. We estimate only about 20 were in airline passenger service in 2019.

The fatal record

Our data lists 15 fatal Y-12 events. Ten do not count: seven military flights (in Kenya, Zambia, Sri Lanka and Mauritania), two survey flights in China and a 1995 TANS flight near Iquitos in Peru whose purpose ASN does not record. Our methodology explains why. The five that count:

  • Lao Aviation, Phonsavan, 13 December 1993: crashed on approach, all 18 on board died. No cause is recorded.
  • China Flying Dragon Aviation, near Changhai, 21 June 1996: the crew turned onto final too early in fog, flew below the minimum altitude despite terrain warnings and hit a hill. Both pilots died; the ten passengers survived.
  • MIAT Mongolian Airlines, Mandalgobi, 10 June 1997: windshear struck about 30 m above the ground at an airport with no wind measuring equipment. 7 of 12 died.
  • MIAT Mongolian Airlines, west of Erdenet, 26 May 1998: the aircraft hit a mountain near its summit 13 minutes after take-off. All 28 died, including 26 passengers in an aircraft built for about 19.
  • Lao Aviation flight 703, near Sam Neua, 19 October 2000: crashed in mountains in bad weather on approach. 8 of 17 died.

Operator or airframe?

None of the counted accidents points at a fault in the Y-12. They are weather, terrain and crew decisions in mountainous countries with thin air traffic services. The same pattern runs through the records of the Twin Otter, Dornier 228 and Let L-410. The overloaded MIAT flight of 1998 says more about the operator than the aircraft.

The non-fatal record tells a similar story. A SATENA Y-12E flew into a storm cloud over Colombia in 2018, dropped 5,500 feet in seconds and landed with severe structural damage; investigators blamed the captain's choice to cross a storm that was clearly visible on the weather radar.

How to tell if you are on one

Flight trackers show the ICAO code Y12. Outside, look for a boxy fuselage, a high, straight wing with two turboprops, fixed wheels and a single tall fin. On a small island or mountain route, ask the airline about weather limits and expect delays when cloud is low.

Questions people ask

Has a Harbin Y-12 crashed recently?

Not on a passenger flight. The last counted fatal Y-12 accident in our data was Lao Aviation flight 703 near Sam Neua on 19 October 2000, in which 8 of the 17 people on board died. Since then the fatal Y-12 crashes have been air force or survey flights, most recently a Kenya Air Force aircraft near Voi in January 2021.

Is the Y-12 certified in the West?

Yes. The FAA certified the Y-12 (IV) in March 1995, the first Chinese-designed aircraft to gain FAA certification, and later the Y-12E and the larger Y-12F.

Why do military crashes not count?

Military flights have different risks and missions, and we have no flight counts for them, so we leave them out of every aircraft's score. Seven of the 15 fatal Y-12 events in our data were military; they are still listed on this page.

How many flights has the Y-12 made?

We estimate about 740,000 passenger flights since 1985, from a fleet model rather than flight records. The real figure could be half or one and a half times that. Most Y-12s never carried airline passengers, which makes the estimate harder.

Sources

  1. 1.ASN record: MIAT Mongolian Airlines Y-12, west of Erdenet, 26 May 1998 (opens in a new tab) · Aviation Safety Network
  2. 2.ASN record: MIAT Mongolian Airlines Y-12, Mandalgobi, 10 June 1997 (opens in a new tab) · Aviation Safety Network
  3. 3.ASN record: Lao Aviation flight 703, near Sam Neua, 19 October 2000 (opens in a new tab) · Aviation Safety Network
  4. 4.ASN record: China Flying Dragon Aviation Y-12, near Changhai, 21 June 1996 (opens in a new tab) · Aviation Safety Network
  5. 5.ASN record: SATENA Y-12E severe turbulence in a storm cloud, Colombia, 26 August 2018 (opens in a new tab) · Aviation Safety Network
  6. 6.World Bank: Air transport, registered carrier departures worldwide (opens in a new tab) · World Bank
  7. 7.SafetyScorer fleet model (World Bank departures, OpenSky averages) (opens in a new tab)Passenger departures 1985 to 7 October 2026 from a fleet model: deliveries with a median passenger service life of about 11 years and about 998 departures per aircraft per year (average of similar types in OpenSky). OpenSky sees too few of these aircraft. Uncertainty roughly ±50%.
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