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SafetyScorer

Boeing · Single-aisle jet

Boeing 737 MAX

Is the Boeing 737 MAX safe? It ranks #21 of 53 airliner families we rate, with 2 fatal accidents counted in about 11 million passenger flights.

Medium confidenceIn serviceUpdated 7 October 2026
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1 in 5.4 millionchance of dying on a flight0.19 deaths per million passenger boardings

How the score is built

Fatal passenger accidents
2 in 10.5 million flights

0.19 fatal passenger accidents per million flights. Counted: passenger flights, accidents and unexplained losses; not counted: sabotage, hijackings, shoot-downs and deliberate crew acts.

Full-loss equivalents
2

Each counted accident adds the share of people on board who died (1 = no survivors). This is what the score is based on.

Flights flown
10.5 million

Estimated passenger departures. Passenger departures 2017 to 7 October 2026. 2019-2022: OpenSky flights by passenger airlines, re-weighted to World Bank departures country by country. Other years: fleet model (deliveries with few retirements so far, about 1,373 departures per aircraft per year, calibrated on OpenSky 2022). Uncertainty roughly ±25%.

Technology generation
Gen 3 jet (glass cockpit and flight management system)

Small fleets are pulled toward the record of their generation: 0.17 full-loss equivalents per million flights over 419 million flights. Weight of this family's own record: 78%.

Last fatal passenger accident
10 March 2019

Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302, 50 km ESE of Addis Ababa-Bole Airport (ADD), Ethiopia: 157 of 157 people on board died.

Hull losses
2

Civil aircraft destroyed or written off from all causes, including non-fatal accidents, cargo flights and attacks; airframes flown by air forces on military operations are left out (context only, not in the score).

Compared with everyday risks

One flight on the Boeing 737 MAX carries about the same risk of death as the activities near it below.

  • An hour's walk1 in 14 million
  • Driving 100 miles (160 km)1 in 5.9 million
  • One flight on the Boeing 737 MAXThis aircraft1 in 5.4 million
  • A day of skiing1 in 1.3 million
  • An ordinary day: accidents and violence1 in 1 million
  • A scuba dive1 in 500,000
  • Cycling 100 miles (160 km)1 in 430,000
  • Running a marathon1 in 290,000
  • A skydive1 in 250,000
  • A general anaesthetic1 in 100,000
  • Riding a motorbike 100 miles (160 km)1 in 83,000
Chance of dying from each activity, on a log scale (longer bar = riskier). Activity figures are approximate and come from our activity pages; the ordinary day and the anaesthetic come from The Norm Chronicles (Blastland and Spiegelhalter, 2013).

Accident history

2 fatal accidents count toward the score, with 346 people on board killed.

DateFlightKilledWhat happened
Ethiopian Airlines ET302737 MAX 8 · 50 km ESE of Addis Ababa-Bole Airport (ADD), Ethiopia157 / 157 on boardJust after takeoff a faulty angle-of-attack sensor triggered the stick shaker and repeated nose-down trim from MCAS. The crew could not counter the trim at high speed and the aircraft dived into the ground. Investigators faulted MCAS design and missing crew guidance.Type: Loss of control in flightASN record
Lion Air JT610737 MAX 8 · 15 km N off Tanjung Bungin, Indonesia189 / 189 on boardAfter takeoff a miscalibrated angle-of-attack sensor caused MCAS to trim the nose down again and again. The crew fought it for about 11 minutes before the jet dived into the sea. The same fault on the previous flight had not been fully reported or fixed.Type: Loss of control in flightASN record

The 737 MAX is safe to fly today, but it has the weakest record of any jet Boeing or Airbus builds today, and for a clear reason. Two crashes in five months, Lion Air 610 in October 2018 and Ethiopian 302 in March 2019, killed all 346 people on board. Both were caused by flight control software that Boeing has since redesigned. Since the MAX returned to service in late 2020, no one has died in a MAX accident.

What the MAX is and where you fly on it

The MAX is the fourth generation of the 737, with new CFM LEAP-1B engines and updated wings on an airframe that dates back to the 1960s. It first flew in 2016 and entered service in 2017. About 2,200 have been built and about 1,900 are in service. The MAX 8 is by far the most common; the MAX 8-200 is a high-density version launched by Ryanair. The MAX 9 is longer. The MAX 7 and MAX 10 were still awaiting certification in 2025.

You are likely to board one with Southwest, United, American, Alaska, Ryanair, Air Canada, WestJet, TUI, flydubai, Turkish Airlines, Akasa or Chinese carriers.

Why it crashed, and what changed

The bigger LEAP engines had to sit further forward and higher on the wing, which changed how the aircraft pitches up at high angles of attack. Boeing added MCAS, software that trims the nose down automatically in those conditions. In its first form, MCAS read one angle-of-attack sensor, could fire repeatedly and was not described in pilot manuals.

On Lion Air 610, a miscalibrated replacement sensor fed it false data, and MCAS pushed the nose down over and over until the aircraft dived into the Java Sea. On Ethiopian 302, the sensor failed just after take-off and the same sequence followed. Ethiopian investigators also listed the lack of an "AOA disagree" alert and the absence of MCAS from pilot training.

Regulators grounded the MAX worldwide in March 2019. The FAA cleared it in November 2020 after Boeing made MCAS compare both sensors, activate only once per event and never push harder than pilots can counter with the control column. Simulator training on these failures became mandatory. In January 2021 Boeing agreed to pay $2.5 billion under a deferred prosecution agreement with the US Justice Department over how it informed the FAA about MCAS.

The next scare was about manufacturing. On 5 January 2024 a door plug blew out of an Alaska Airlines MAX 9 shortly after take-off from Portland. All 177 people survived. The FAA grounded MAX 9s with that door plug for inspections and capped Boeing's MAX production while the company reworked its quality controls.

The fatal record

Two events, both counted, up to 7 October 2026:

  • 29 October 2018, Lion Air 610, Jakarta. All 189 on board died.
  • 10 March 2019, Ethiopian Airlines 302, Addis Ababa to Nairobi. All 157 on board died.

Both killed everyone on board, so each adds a full loss in our methodology. Because the MAX has flown only about 10.5 million passenger flights, those two losses weigh heavily, which is why its score sits below the 737 NG and the A320 family.

How to tell if you are on one

Flight apps show the ICAO code: B37M for the MAX 7, B38M for the MAX 8 (including the 8-200), B39M for the MAX 9 and B3XM for the MAX 10. Many airlines now list the aircraft as "Boeing 737-8" or "737-9" without the word MAX. From outside, the saw-tooth rear edges of the engine covers mark it out from the older 737 NG; the split winglets are less reliable, since some NGs have been retrofitted with similar ones.

If you would rather avoid the MAX, check the aircraft code a day or two before departure, since airlines sometimes swap aircraft. On current evidence, though, the airline's own record matters more than the type.

Questions people ask

Is it safe to fly on a 737 MAX now?

The MAX has had no fatal accident since it returned to service in late 2020, over millions of flights. The flight control software behind both crashes was redesigned and pilots now train for its failure in simulators. Its record is still weaker than the A320neo's or the 737 NG's, because two fatal crashes weigh heavily on a fleet this young.

What is MCAS?

MCAS is software that pushes the nose down automatically in some high angle-of-attack situations, added because the MAX's larger engines changed its handling. In the original design it used a single angle-of-attack sensor and could activate again and again. When that sensor failed on Lion Air 610 and Ethiopian 302, MCAS kept pushing the nose down until the pilots lost control.

How do I know if my flight is on a 737 MAX?

Look for the ICAO code B38M (MAX 8) or B39M (MAX 9) in flight apps such as Flightradar24, or the words 737-8 or 737-9 on the booking page. Boeing and many airlines dropped the word MAX from the name after the grounding, so a 737-8 is a MAX 8.

Did the Alaska Airlines door plug blowout kill anyone?

No. In January 2024 a door plug blew out of an Alaska Airlines MAX 9 climbing out of Portland, and all 177 people on board survived. The NTSB found that four bolts meant to hold the plug in place had not been reinstalled at Boeing's factory.

Sources

  1. 1.ASN record: Lion Air flight JT610, Java Sea, 29 October 2018 (opens in a new tab) · Aviation Safety Network
  2. 2.ASN record: Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302, near Bishoftu, 10 March 2019 (opens in a new tab) · Aviation Safety Network
  3. 3.ASN record: Alaska Airlines flight 1282 door plug separation, Portland, 5 January 2024 (opens in a new tab) · Aviation Safety Network
  4. 4.SafetyScorer exposure model: OpenSky Network flights 2019-2022, World Bank departures, fleet model (opens in a new tab)Passenger departures 2017 to 7 October 2026. 2019-2022: OpenSky flights by passenger airlines, re-weighted to World Bank departures country by country. Other years: fleet model (deliveries with few retirements so far, about 1,373 departures per aircraft per year, calibrated on OpenSky 2022). Uncertainty roughly ±25%.
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